Original-Research: Coreo AG (von GBC AG): Buy
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Original-Research: Coreo AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu Coreo AG
Unternehmen: Coreo AGISIN: DE000A0B9VV6
Anlass der Studie: Research Note Empfehlung: Buy Kursziel: 2.60 EUR Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2022 Letzte Ratingänderung: Analyst: Cosmin Filker; Marcel Goldmann
1H 2021: earnings improvement due to higher rental income and sale of properties; slight increase in 2021 forecasts; price target and rating confirmed
As we expected, Coreo AG increased rental income to EUR1.93 million in the first six months of 2021 (previous year: EUR1.55 million). The increase in rental income is primarily attributable to the addition of the NRW portfolio in the first half of 2020, which was only included on a pro rata basis in the prior-year period. In addition, the company achieved letting successes with the Hydra portfolio and did not record any corona-related rental losses overall. The increase in rental income was accompanied on the one hand by a slight decline in absolute terms in net income from disposals of EUR0.31 million (previous year: EUR0.49 million) and on the other hand by a visible increase in the valuation result to EUR0.78 million (previous year: EUR0.00 million). With this significantly increased earnings base, Coreo AG was able to increase EBIT to EUR 0.50 million (previous year: EUR -0.10 million) and thus report positive EBIT on a half- year basis for the first time.
In our last research study (see study dated August 19, 2021), we explained the basis for our forecasts, which we believe remain valid. On the one hand, the company is likely to generate an increase in rental income from its current property portfolio. As a further aspect of earnings development, we have assumed possible proceeds from disposals in particular from the planned sale of properties in the Göttingen portfolio and from partial sales of the properties in Lünen and Gelsenkirchen held directly by Coreo AG.
However, we had not planned for the sale of two properties in the Hydra portfolio (Hanau, Darmstadt) and one property in the Mannheim portfolio, for which purchase agreements have already been concluded and which were therefore reclassified as 'held for sale'. We are therefore raising our expected disposal proceeds for 2021 significantly to EUR12.87m and expect a disposal result of EUR2.13m (previously: EUR1.52m). However, the sale of the properties will be accompanied by a significant inflow of liquidity, which will significantly increase the financial scope for further investments.
According to our estimates, Coreo AG had acquired properties with a volume of around EUR59m by the time our last research study was published. For the remainder of the financial year, we had assumed further property acquisitions of EUR10m. With the acquisition of a logistics property in Delmenhorst announced on 7 September 2021, a significant part of this assumption is now likely to have become reality. On a total rental area of approx. 29,900 sqm, the annual rent distributed among several tenants currently amounts to around EUR 0.5 million. No statement was made regarding the purchase price. Assuming a typical multiple of 10 to 12.5 for Coreo AG, the purchase price is likely to be between EUR 5.00 to 6.25 million.
While we are raising our 2021 forecasts for proceeds from disposals and net income from disposals as well as rental income, we are assuming lower valuation income of EUR2.30 million (previously: EUR5.30 million). This is particularly the case in light of the fact that the largest transaction in the company's history will not be completed until the coming financial year 2022. Accordingly, we now expect EBIT of EUR 2.93 million (previously: EUR 4.92 million) and after-tax earnings of EUR 0.32 million (previously: EUR 1.82 million) for the current fiscal year 2021. The forecasts for the following years remain unchanged.
As the lower earnings forecasts for 2021 are merely a consequence of lower valuation income, there are only marginal changes in the DCF valuation result. This is because the valuation gains have no impact on the cash flow, which forms the basis for our DCF valuation model. We therefore confirm our price target of EUR2.60 and maintain our BUY rating unchanged.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/22945.pdf
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