Original-Research: USU Software AG (von NuWays AG): BUY
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^ Original-Research: USU Software AG - von NuWays AG Einstufung von NuWays AG zu USU Software AG Unternehmen: USU Software AG ISIN: DE000A0BVU28 Anlass der Studie: Q3 Review Empfehlung: BUY seit: 23.11.2023 Kursziel: EUR 30,00 Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten Letzte Ratingänderung: Analyst: Philipp Sennewald Final Q3 in line with est. amid sequential improvements; chg. Yesterday, USU released a solid set of Q3 results, showing sequential improvements compared to the second quarter despite an ongoing underperformance of license revenues. Q3 sales increased 4.2% qoq to EUR 32.9 (eNuW: EUR 33.3m), implying a muted 1% yoy growth against a tough comparable base. Main drivers were the continuously strong growth in SaaS sales of 15.1% yoy to EUR 4.3m (eNuW: EUR 4.6m) as well as the consulting business, which grew 12% yoy to EUR 20.6m (eNuW: EUR 20.2m) thanks to the continuing strong demand for digitization services. However, this could not fully compensate for the again weak license sales, which declined 67% yoy to EUR 1.3m (eNuW: EUR 1.4m), due to prolonged sales cycles. On this basis as well as due to continuously increased R&D expenses in connection with the SaaS platform and AI projects, Q3 EBITDA steeply declined by 43% yoy to EUR 2.5m (eNuW: EUR 2.9m). Notably, USU introduced an employee stock option program in Q3 following the 2022 share buyback. Although not cash relevant, this marks a specific extraordinary expense under IFRS, which is why management decided to henceforth report an adjusted EBITDA figure. For Q3, adjusted EBITDA amounted to EUR 2.8m. Going forward, this will also include the newly introduced share program for executives, which is fed by Udo Strehl's personal stock portfolio. As a result, both the company's FY as well as the mid-term guidance now refer to adjusted EBITDA. Speaking of which, management confirmed its FY outlook of EUR 132-139m sales (eNuW: EUR 133m) and now adjusted EBITDA of EUR 13-15m (eNuW: EUR 13.1m). While this looks well achievable on the top-line (+1.6% yoy implied Q4 growth at low end), license sales (eNuW: -50% yoy to EUR 2.2m) need to pick up the pace in Q4 in order to reach to bottom-line target (12.4% implied Q4 margin at low end). Overall, the case remains fully intact, in our view. Mind you, that a temporary decline in profitability was always in the cards given the lower initial margin of SaaS contracts compared to license sales (full payment at closing). However, as the annual SaaS payments are seen to equal the one-time license costs (+maintenance) after c. 3 years and SaaS sales showing strong growth (25% CAGR '21' 25e), margins are seen strongly expand from 2025e onwards, while 2024e is seen to be another transition year. BUY, unchanged PT of EUR 30.00 based on DCF. Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/28377.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
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