Original-Research: DEMIRE AG (von NuWays AG): HOLD
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^ Original-Research: DEMIRE AG - von NuWays AG Einstufung von NuWays AG zu DEMIRE AG Unternehmen: DEMIRE AG ISIN: DE000A0XFSF0 Anlass der Studie: Update Empfehlung: HOLD seit: 24.11.2023 Kursziel: EUR 1,20 Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten Letzte Ratingänderung: Analyst: Philipp Sennewald Another guidance adjustment following lack of disposals; chg. As already anticipated in our recent earnings review, DEMIRE yesterday updated its FY guidance for a second time this year as management now expects a lower number of property disposals than what was planned at the beginning of the year. As this consequently results in a larger asset base, rental income as well as FFO are now expected to come in higher. Management now guides for rental income of EUR 78-80m (vs EUR 74.5-76.5m before; eNuW old: EUR 77.9m) and FFO of EUR 35-37m (vs EUR 33-35m before; eNuW old: EUR 34m). After the company already adjusted its outlook in July following the withdrawal of the LogPark buyer, this has been the second guidance update this year. Initially, management targeted a rental income range of EUR 71-73m and FFO of EUR 30-32m. According to our estimates, this would have required disposals to the tune of > EUR 300m throughout the year vs EUR 69m as of Q3. The lower sales volume is seen to be mainly attributable to the de facto standstill on the real estate transaction market, as buyers do have little to none acting pressure due to the lack of competition. Still, management remains confident that the disposal of the LogPark will still be signed this year, although a closing and thus the related cash inflow (eNuW: EUR 110m gross; book value of EUR 121m) will likely not take place before mid Q1. While the delayed disposals are causing higher rental income and thus cash flows on the one hand, it also means that significant cash inflows, which would have been vital to at least partly release some of the refinancing pressure, are not available. That said and despite the recent rating downgrade by Moody's, we remain confident that the company will announce a solution on the refinancing issue in the course of H1'24, as the dialogue with the holders of the corporate bond (EUR 499m due in 10/24) intensified in recent weeks. In our view, a prolongation at either an increased coupon or at a higher nominal value appears as the most likely option. To further shore up liquidity, we expect at least parts of the EUR 266m worth of LOIs to materialize in the first quarters of 2024e. As visibility remains low regarding the outcome of the refinancing process, we reiterate our HOLD recommendation with an unchanged PT of EUR 1.20 based on NAV and DDM. Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/28403.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research. Kontakt für Rückfragen NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++
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