Original-Research: USU Software AG (von NuWays AG): BUY
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^ Original-Research: USU Software AG - von NuWays AG Einstufung von NuWays AG zu USU Software AG Unternehmen: USU Software AG ISIN: DE000A0BVU28 Anlass der Studie: Update Empfehlung: BUY seit: 12.01.2024 Kursziel: 30 Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten Letzte Ratingänderung: Analyst: Philipp Sennewald Strong order intake to start transitionary 2024e This week, USU announced to have won two public sector framework contracts to start the year on a positive note: (1) Germany's Federal Employment Agency (BA) commissioned USU for its TEBIT (Technical Inventory Management System IT) project. The TEBIT system of the BA is based on the USU Valuemation software and has been in productive use since 2016. To ensure a continuous stable operation, USU is now carrying out an update to the latest USU Service Management (former Valuemation) software. The deal comprises the delivery of the software licenses as well as a service package over 4 years. While the total volume was not disclosed, we estimate it to be in the lower single-digit million range. (2) A large system house from the public sector has commissioned USU to supply and implement a solution for end-to-end monitoring (E2E) in order to enable the customer to proactively monitor their applications and document the availability and performance of IT services. The total volume of the framework is in the high 6-digit range. With this, the company is kicking off a year in style, which is likely going to be another transitionary period. Mind you, USU is currently amid a SaaS transformation, which is seen to cause temporarily declining margins, due to the subscription-nature of SaaS contracts which come with lower initial margins compared to perpetual license deals where full payment is incurred at closing (+annual maintenance). However, as the annual subscription payments are seen to equal perpetual license sales including maintenance after c. 3 years and SaaS sales showing strong growth (25% CAGR '21'-25e), margins are seen to strongly expand from 2025 onwards. That said, we expect sales to grow 10% in 2024e to EUR 146m (eCons: EUR 146m) based on a strong order backlog (eNuW: EUR 81m at YE'23e), continuously increasing SaaS order intake as well as a stabilization of license sales (eNuW: -60% yoy in 2023e). Against this backdrop, adj. EBITDA is seen to return to growth (eNuW: EUR 18.6m). Yet, due to the aforementioned effects in relation to the SaaS transition, margins are seen slightly below '21 & '22 levels with 12.5%. Despite another transition year likely laying ahead, current valuation is looking undemanding and should offer an attractive entry opportunity given a 14x EV/EBIT '24e which compares to the historic average of 20x. BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 30.00 based on DCF. Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/28645.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research. Kontakt für Rückfragen NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++
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