Original-Research: UmweltBank AG (von GBC AG): BUY

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Original-Research: UmweltBank AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu UmweltBank AG

Unternehmen: UmweltBank AG
ISIN: DE0005570808

Anlass der Studie: Research Note
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 19.05 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2022
Letzte Ratingänderung: 
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann

Preliminary figures 2021: Strong increase in earnings; Constant development
of pre-tax profit expected; Forecast slightly reduced and dilution effect
taken into account; Target price slightly reduced to EUR 19.05 (previously:
EUR 21.00); Rating: BUY
 
As expected, the business development of UmweltBank AG was dynamic in the
past financial year 2021. According to preliminary figures, the business
volume, i.e. the balance sheet total plus contingent liabilities and other
commitments, increased by 19.7% to EUR 6,456 million as of 31 December 2021
(31 December 2020: EUR 5,393 million). Originally, the UmweltBank
management had assumed an increase in business volume to EUR 5.8 billion
before its guidance was raised to EUR 6.4 billion with the publication of
the 2021 half-year figures.
 
The better than expected development in each case is primarily due to the
continued very positive development of the new loan volume. With new
lending totalling EUR 845 million (previous year: EUR 689 million), there
was a very high demand for financing from the real estate sector and the
renewable energy sector. Compared to the previous year's reporting date,
outstanding environmental loans increased by 10.8 % to EUR 3,880 million
(previous year: EUR 3,503 million). Based on this expanded foundation, the
company's main source of income, the interest, financial and valuation
result, increased significantly to EUR 63.20 million (previous year: EUR
54.35 million).
 
The only slight increase in the pre-tax result to EUR 38.09 million
(previous year: EUR 37.85 million) compared to the significant increase in
business was in line with the company's guidance, which had forecast a
constant development of the pre-tax result. On the one hand, UmweltBank AG
received one-off special income of EUR 4.16 million in the course of a
settlement from a legal dispute in 2020, which resulted in a higher result
in the previous year. On the other hand, the company has significantly
increased its staff as a basis for expected further growth. Compared to the
previous year's figure of 250, the number of employees climbed to 299 at
the end of the year and thus personnel expenses rose significantly to EUR
16.77 million (previous year: EUR 13.78 million). Other administrative
expenses, in particular the bank levy for deposit protection, also
increased to EUR 4.10 million (previous year: EUR 2.68 million). The
insolvency of the Greensill Group reduced the deposit insurance portfolio
by around EUR 3.5 billion.
 
With the publication of the preliminary figures, UmweltBank AG has
published the forecasts for the current financial year 2022. Overall, the
Board of Managing Directors anticipates rising income, which, however, will
be offset by higher expenses, so that only a constant development of the
pre-tax result in the amount of approximately EUR 38 million is expected.
On the one hand, the expected increase in costs is related to the
implemented expansion of the workforce, which provides a larger cost base.
Above all, however, the higher costs are likely to be related to the
planned change in the core banking system. According to UmweltBank's
management, the investment costs associated with the change should total
around EUR 3.0 million in 2022.
 
We are adjusting our previous forecasts to the new corporate guidance.
Similarly, we expect a pre-tax result of EUR 38.47 million for 2022
(previous GBC forecast: EUR 41.18 million) and a pre-tax result of EUR
41.52 million for the coming financial year 2023 (previous GBC forecast:
EUR 42.96 million).
 
For the valuation of UmweltBank AG, we have used a residual income model,
whereby the difference between the return on equity and the cost of equity
is used to determine the surplus return of the estimation periods. The sum
of the discounted residual income results in a value of EUR675.06m. In view
of an outstanding number of shares of 35.44m, this results in a fair
enterprise value per share of EUR 19.05 (previously: EUR 21.00). The price
target reduction is on the one hand a consequence of the dilution effect
following the inclusion of the higher number of shares after the capital
increase carried out. In addition, we have made a slight reduction in the
expected results in 2022 and 2023. Based on the current share price of EUR
15.95 we assign a BUY rating (previously: HOLD).

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/23461.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (4,5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:

http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date (time) completion (German version): 24.02.22 (10:01am)
Date (time) first transmission (German version): 24.02.22 (12:00pm)
Date (time) completion (English version): 25.02.22 (11:00am)
Date (time) first transmission (English version): 28.02.22 (10:00am)

-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------


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