Original-Research: THE NAGA GROUP AG (von NuWays AG): HOLD
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^ Original-Research: THE NAGA GROUP AG - von NuWays AG Einstufung von NuWays AG zu THE NAGA GROUP AG Unternehmen: THE NAGA GROUP AG ISIN: DE000A161NR7 Anlass der Studie: Updaate Empfehlung: HOLD seit: 17.11.2023 Kursziel: EUR 1,30 Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten Letzte Ratingänderung: Analyst: Frederik Jarchow FY22 out // Short-term remains clouded; Restart with HOLD Recently, NAGA finally reported its audited FY22 figures, which reflect a particularly challenging year for the company. In detail: Sales stand at EUR 57.6m (+9% yoy), above our estimates of EUR 50.1m, as we have not considered NGC trading revenues of EUR 6.8m. While trading activity should have declined from 520 to 434 trades per active customer and the overall number of trades to 8.1m (-19% yoy), number of active customers should have remained largely stable (-3% yoy; 18.7k at YE). An increased avg. revenue per trade of EUR 7.10 (+34% yoy) compensated for the weaker customer activity resulting in a stable top line. EBITDA came in strongly negative at EUR -13.9m (eNuW: EUR -10.6m), heavily burdened by marketing expenses of EUR 28.3m that were necessary to keep top line stable throughout a weak year in the overall brokerage space. Further, personnel expenses, R&D costs and other operating expenses (i.e. depreciations of NGC and receivables of EUR 4.9m), drove EBITDA into negative terrain. EUR 23m of D&A (EUR 15.3m from devalued crypto assets on the balance sheet) burdened the group's EBIT further, which came in at EUR -36.9m. In a nutshell, 2022 was terrible year for NAGA and all other players in the brokerage space as customer activity fell off the cliff and cryptos accross the board faced sharp corrections. Looking forward, 2023 can be seen as a transition year for the company and NAGA should return to annual top line and bottom-line growth from FY24e onwards due to the strategic shift towards global growth across so far under-penetrated regions (sales split as of 9M´23: Europe: 90%; Other: 10%), new acquisitions, expansion of the license base paired with ongoing cost discipline, leaner operations and increasing efficiency (i.e. marketing). While we see the potential of such a business model, the market environment is currently not favourable for CFD brokers: Trading activity stabilize on low levels and regulatory requirements are tightening, especially in Europe. We remain cautious, yet restarting coverage with HOLD and a new PT of EUR 1.30 based on DCF. Once the strategic initiatives result in profitable topline growth, we can return to a more favourable vote. Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/28317.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research. Kontakt für Rückfragen NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++
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