Original-Research: 123fahrschule SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: 123fahrschule SE - from NuWays AG

29.09.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to 123fahrschule SE

     Company Name:                123fahrschule SE
     ISIN:                        DE000A2P4HL9

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     from:                        29.09.2025
     Target price:                EUR 7.40
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Philipp Sennewald

123f issues PW amid pending reform; chg.

Friday after market close, 123f put out an ad-hoc, stating that the company
will likely not achieve its initial FY25 guidance of EUR 26-28m sales and EUR
1.5-2.5m EBITDA. From our perspective, this came as a surprise, following
the strong H1 results published only three weeks ago, which also came with a
confirmation of the FY outlook. In detail:

Management now expects sales to come to arrive in the range of EUR 25-26m,
caused mainly by a weaker than anticipated performance in the professional
driver and driving instructor training segments. Moreover, the still-pending
reform of the driver training regulations (i.e. simulators & online theory
lessons) is apparently delaying investment decisions thus dampening demand
especially in the simulator segment. Although simulators provided an already
strong revenue contribution in H1 (EUR 0.7m), it still could not realize its
full potential. Moreover, a major truck order expected for H2 did not
materialize, while the communicated large order from Q1 (EUR 1m) shrank to EUR
0.35m due to "political uncertainties in the US.

The EBITDA guidance was also reduced, as management is now targeting EUR
0.4-1.0m. This was due to higher operating costs in H2 following strategic
personnel and investment decisions, one-off burdens from relocations and new
site openings, and the weaker top-line development. Given the EUR 1.0m EBITDA
in H1, the new outlook implies a negative EUR 0.3m EBITDA for H2 at mid-point.
We hence position ourselves at the very upper end of the new guidance.

On a positive note, management emphasizes that the core driver, the private
customer training segment (79% sales contribution in H1), is continuing to
perform well with double-digit growth, higher sales per instructor, and
strong profitability, providing resilience despite the weaker segments.
Looking ahead, a catch-up in the simulator business from FY26 on appears to
be in the cards once regulatory reforms are enacted and demand materializes,
while investments in the ERP platform, AI, and process automation are
expected to improve efficiency and scalability. Overall, the strategic
agenda remains unchanged, underpinning confidence in sustained growth and
margin expansion, in our view.

Overall, we continue to regard the case as fully intact, given the pending
reform should only delay revenues. More importantly, 123f remains in pole
position for the upcoming change in regulation given its unique set-up based
on its proprietary digital platform as well as market leadership in most of
Germany's larger municipalities. Hence, the company remains well on track
for sustained growth and margin expansion based on increasing scale effects.

We thus confirm our BUY rating with a reduced PT of EUR 7.40 (old: EUR 7.90)
based on DCF.



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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2204770 29.09.2025 CET/CEST

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