Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG - from NuWays AG

19.09.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to MHP Hotel AG

     Company Name:                MHP Hotel AG
     ISIN:                        DE000A3E5C24

     Reason for the research:     Preview / Review
     Recommendation:              BUY
     from:                        19.09.2025
     Target price:                EUR 3.00
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Philipp Sennewald

H1 preview: Strong growth & margin expansion expected

Next Monday, MHP will release its H1 report, which we expect to come in
strong following the already released hotel performance figures for Q2. In
detail:

H1 sales are seen to increase 12.2% yoy to EUR 79.0m, carried by a strong
development in Logis sales, which were up 14% yoy to EUR 60.1m according to
the hotel performance reports. This was mainly driven by higher occupancy
rates (eNuW: +1pp yoy in H1), another 8% (eNuW) improvement of the ADR to EUR
221 as well as the initial effect of the Koenigshof. The result is
particularly impressive given the absence of major one-off events like the
2024 Euros or large concerts series (e.g. Adele in Munich). F&B sales also
grew 11% yoy to EUR 16.3m, while the other sales segment should have remained
stable yoy.

This should have resulted in the first positive H1 EBITDA since the listing.
In fact, H1 EBITDA is expected at EUR 2.1m (H1'24: EUR -1.5m), implying a 2.7%
margin. In our view, this clearly displays positive operating leverage, even
during the seasonally softer H1.

On this basis, we expect management to confirm the FY25 outlook of c. EUR 180m

sales (eNuW: EUR 185m) and EBITDA of EUR 15m (eNuW: EUR 15.3m/ EUR 10.3m adj. EBITDA

excl. key money payments). In our view, this is absolutely in reach,
considering the historically stronger H2, the initial impact from the Conrad
in Hamburg (283 additional rooms, >10% increase on group level) as well as
the ramp-up of the Koenigshof. Based on our H1 estimates, the guidance
implies 11.5% yoy H2 sales growth as well as an EBITDA margin of 12.8% (vs
13.1% in H2'24), which again is reasonable, in our view.

At least equally important, however, is what lies ahead for MHP. Following
the successful capital increase in early Q3 (EUR 4.5m gross proceeds at EUR 1.45
per share), the company is now well-positioned to further expand its
portfolio. The timing seems perfect, given that the current challenges
several peers are facing should create attractive opportunities for MHP.
With industry-leading KPIs and approximately EUR 10m in available funds, MHP
is well-placed to secure some attractive locations in the coming quarters.
Note that aside from the already planned openings in Hamburg and Stuttgart,
we do not consider any portfolio additions in our model, indicating that any
announcements would result in further upside.

Besides taking over hotels and operating them under a top-tier hotel brand
(e.g. Marriott or Hilton), we expect MHP to also further roll out its own
boutique brand MOOONS, following the promising performance of its first
location in Vienna (11% EBITDA margin in FY24).

Overall, we maintain our strong conviction of the investment case, which is
supported by the company's current EV/adj. EBITDA and FCFY metrics. We
therefore reiterate our BUY rating and keep our PT unchanged at EUR 3.00 based
on DCF.



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https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=ca59c2fed068b3ec2530ce1ecd51a56d
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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2200066 19.09.2025 CET/CEST

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