Original-Research: Media and Games Invest SE (von GBC AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Media and Games Invest SE - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Media and Games Invest SE

Unternehmen: Media and Games Invest SE
ISIN: MT0000580101

Anlass der Studie: Research Note
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 9.20 EUR
Letzte Ratingänderung: 
Analyst: Marcel Goldmann, Cosmin Filker

FY 2021 closed with jump in revenues and earnings; Strong dovetailing of
media and games business ensure high growth rate; Due to transformation
into a fully integrated ad tech company with own gaming activities, we
expect dynamic growth; Forecasts and price target raised; Buy rating
 
Turnover and earnings development 2021
 
On 28 February 2022, Media and Games Invest SE (MGI) announced its
preliminary business figures for the past financial year 2021. According to
these figures, the MGI Group was able to continue its dynamic growth course
in the past financial period with a jump in turnover of 80.0% to EUR 252.20
million (previous year: EUR 140.20 million). The high growth rate was
particularly due to the strong fourth quarter (revenue Q4 2021: EUR 80.2
million vs. revenue Q4 2020: EUR 48.70 million), which was also the quarter
with the highest revenue and earnings in the company's history to date. The
rapid increase in revenue was based on both organic and inorganic revenue
effects (38.0% organic growth and 42.0% inorganic growth).
 
The significant increase in Group turnover was mainly driven by the Media
segment. In this business segment, the company achieved a jump in turnover
by 147.7% to EUR 139.60 million (previous year: EUR 65.0 million). In
addition to significant revenue growth from organic growth factors, such as
expanded advertising partnerships, this business unit also benefited from
significant positive effects from completed M&A measures (e.g. Smaato
takeover).
 
In addition, the gaming segment also made a significant contribution to the
increase in group revenues with a significant increase in revenues of 49.7%
to EUR 112.60 million (previous year: EUR 75.20 million). This dynamic
increase in revenue resulted primarily from several content updates, game
launches and the KingsIsle acquisition.
 
Even more significant increases were achieved at the earnings level.
Compared to the previous year, EBITDA increased highly dynamically by
131.0% to EUR 65.00 million (previous year: EUR 26.50 million). EBITDA,
adjusted for one-off effects (e.g. special and restructuring costs from M&A
transactions), increased by 144.3% to EUR 71.10 million (previous year: EUR
29.10 million). The adjusted EBITDA margin also increased significantly to
28.0% (previous year: 21.0%). In our opinion, the very good company
performance is primarily the result of the economies of scale and synergy
effects achieved within the 'strongly interlinked' business fields of media
and games.
 
The corporate guidance issued by MGI management was thus exceeded. Our
revenue estimate (revenue: EUR 234.15 million) and earnings forecasts
(EBITDA: EUR 61.21 million, adjusted EBITDA: EUR 65.71 million) were also
exceeded, and our net forecast (net result: EUR 16.93 million) was almost
achieved.
 
Forecasts and evaluation
 
With the publication of the preliminary figures, MGI has announced its
corporate guidance for the current business year. According to this
guidance, the company expects revenues in a range of EUR 290.0 million to
EUR 310.0 million and adjusted EBITDA in a range of EUR 80.0 million to EUR
90.0 million.
 
Based on this positive outlook and the currently highly convincing company
performance, we are significantly raising our previous revenue and earnings
forecasts for the financial years 2022 and 2023. For the current financial
year, we now expect revenues of EUR 302.22 million (previously: EUR 289.88
million) and an adjusted EBITDA of EUR 88.72 million (previously: EUR 86.53
million). For the following financial year 2023, we expect revenues of EUR
382.16 million (previously: EUR 362.41 million) and an adjusted EBITDA of
EUR 116.04 million (previously: EUR 111.83 million). In the following
financial year 2024, revenue and adjusted EBITDA should increase further to
EUR 478.26 million and EUR 145.78 million respectively. Against the
background that we expect higher interest expenses in the future than was
previously the case, we have only slightly increased our previous net
forecast for the financial year 2022 and slightly lowered our net forecast
for the financial year 2023.
 
In the past few years, the MGI Group has built up to a good starting point
to continue to grow very dynamically and highly profitably as an ad tech
company with its own gaming activities (access to 'first party data' and
advertising space of gaming assets). The combination of the synergetic
media and games business activities should continue to significantly boost
the profitable growth to date. In addition, the high level of cash on hand
(cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2021: approx. EUR 180.0 million)
offers the company the opportunity to further strengthen the group through
planned M&A transactions and thus to further increase the earning power and
the pace of growth.
 
Within the framework of our DCF valuation model, we have raised our
previous price target to EUR 9.20 (previously: EUR 8.50 per share) due to
our increased estimates for the financial years 2022 and 2023. In view of
the current share price level, we thus continue to assign a BUY rating and
see significant share price potential. The valuation results of our peer
group analysis (see below) also support our assessment of the
attractiveness and price potential of the MGI share.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/23565.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstrasse 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR. Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung

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Date (time) of completion: 08/03/2022 (18:43 pm)
Date (time) of first distribution: 09/03/2022 (10:30 am)

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