Original-Research: 123fahrschule SE (von NuWays AG): Buy
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^ Original-Research: 123fahrschule SE - from NuWays AG Classification of NuWays AG to 123fahrschule SE Company Name: 123fahrschule SE ISIN: DE000A2P4HL9 Reason for the research: Update Recommendation: Buy from: 05.03.2024 Target price: 7.20 Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten Last rating change: Analyst: Philipp Sennewald FY '23: Strong growth and improved profitability; chg. est & PT Last week, 123fahrschule published a sound set of FY '23 results. Total sales increased by 24% yoy, coming in at EUR 20.6m (eNuW: EUR 20.2m; eCons: EUR 21.0m). In spite of a slight decrease in the number of private customer registrations, sales growth was still driven by the Private Customers segment, where sales grew by 16% yoy to EUR 15.6m (eNuW: EUR 15.9m). The Professional Driver Education segment continued its strong growth momentum, as sales were up 138% yoy to EUR 2.3m. Importantly, sales from the Driving Instructor Training segment regained traction in Q4 (+106% yoy), as FY sales came in at EUR 2.7m (+22% yoy; eNuW: EUR 2.2m), which was largely due to efficiency gains. FY EBITDA came in at EUR -0.8m (eNuW: EUR -0.7m; eCons: EUR -0.4m), which is largely in line with expectations. After a neutral 9M EBITDA, the full-year figure, once again, underpins the company's strong seasonality, which is reflecting (1) a general reluctance of customers to take driving lessons during Christmas season as well as (2) higher OpEx based on built-up provisions for vacation accruals which are cumulated at YE. However, this represents a substantial improvement compared to an EBITDA of EUR -2,7m in FY '22. In our view, this shows the effectiveness of the cost-cutting measures introduced in December 2022, whose implementation was fulfilled in 2023. Going forward, the company looks set to remain on its growth path, as sales are seen to grow by 13% yoy to EUR 23.2m in FY' 24e (eNuW; eCons: EUR 24.2m), which should be driven by the Private Customer segment (+12% yoy) based on increased capacity of driving instructor FTEs (+20% yoy at YE '24e). Yet, we also expect a contribution from the Professional Driver Education segment (+20% yoy), as an increased focus on corporate clients (i.e. logistics, retail, agriculture) is seen to offset a possible negative effect of the current government budget crisis on the awarding of education vouchers. Against this backdrop, EBITDA is seen to further improve to a neutral level (eNuW; eCons: EUR 2.6m) before turning positive in FY '25e (eNuW: EUR 2.2m; eCons: EUR 3.2m), which should be fuelled by the likely return of online theory in 2025. In a CC scheduled for next Monday (register here), management is going to provide more colour on this matter as well as on possible legal changes regarding the use of simulators in driving schools. The stock remains a BUY with a new PT of EUR 7.20 based on DCF. You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/29067.pdf For additional information visit our website www.nuways-ag.com/research. Contact for questions
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www.nuways-ag.com/research. Kontakt für Rückfragen NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++
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