Original-Research: tonies SE (von NuWays AG): Buy

    ^
Original-Research: tonies SE - from NuWays AG

29.08.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

     Company Name:                tonies SE
     ISIN:                        LU2333563281

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              Buy
     from:                        29.08.2025
     Target price:                EUR 11.00
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Henry Wendisch

tonies released a solid set of Q2 results but were impacted by growth
investments in light of the launch of TB2. In detail:

Q2 sales grew by 16% yoy to EUR 79m. Regionally, North America grew by 14% yoy
to EUR 31m (39% of group sales), whereas Rest of World maintained its strong
momentum and grew by 74% yoy to EUR 16m (21% of group sales) especially driven
by France, UK, Australia and New Zealand while DACH remained flat yoy at EUR
32m (40% of group sales). On a product group level, sales from tonies grew
by +22% yoy to EUR 60m on the back of 7% more units sold and a 14% higher ASP
of EUR 10.03, mainly thanks to price increases in the USA since May 2025. On
the other hand, the sales from tonieboxes declined by 14% yoy to EUR 15.8m
with ASP flat yoy and 14% less units sold, as retailers have reduced
inventory build up in anticipation of TB2.

On an H1 basis, which includes are more detailed profitability picture,
gross profit after licensing costs grew faster than sales by 29% yoy to EUR
104m (58.8% margin, up 4.1pp yoy) mainly thanks to lower relative COGS
(-3.6pp yoy sales ratio), but also due a better mix effect affecting
licensing costs (-0.4pp yoy). This effect is a result of the aforementioned
growth of tonies and decline of tonieboxes, as tonies in general carry a
much higher gross margin than tonieboxes but also benefitted from the price
increase (as of May 1st in the US). Consequently, contribution profit
expanded drastically by 38% yoy to EUR 76m (42.9% margin, up 5.6pp yoy) on the
back of further logistic efficiency gains due to better scale.

On the other hand, adj. EBITDA was nonetheless impacted by higher personell
costs (+27% yoy; 18.9% sales ratio, up 1pp yoy) which led to an adj. EBITDA
of at EUR 3.8m (-4% yoy; 2.1% margin, down 0.5pp yoy). This should stem mainly
from the personnel ramp up and incurred development costs of TB2.

Following more tariff clarity, tonies issued a FY 25 guidance. Sales are
expected to grow by more than 25% yoy (before FX) to above EUR 600m. Thereof,
NA should grow by 30% yoy. Adj. EBITDA margin is seen between 6.5-8.5% in
FY'25e.

A key highlight was launch of the "Toniebox 2" (TB2). Many new features
(e.g. "Tonieplay", sleep timer, sun alarm, .) are aimed to increase usage by
adding interactivity to the linear audio, thus increase lock in effects and
platform loyalty, which creates the basis for higher recurring revenues.
Moreover, TB2 doubles the addressable market by expanding the age-group to
1-9 (prev. 3-7 with TB1) in two ways: (1) the new "My First Tonies" are
especially designed and approved for toddlers, giving parents an earlier
touchpoint to get to know the tonies ecosystem and build trust with the
brand and (2) the interactive audio and games-like features of "Tonieplay"
(that only work on the TB2) gives parents in today's tech saturated
childhoods an opportunity to have a screen-free toy until the age of 9+, for
which age group screen-based toys are still not healthy. All in all, TB2 is
seen as the largest product innovation since the start in 2016, creates
strong up- and cross-selling opportunities and should thus play an important
role of continuing tonies' growth ahead.

Against this backdrop, we recommend to BUY with a PT of EUR 11.00, based on
DCF.



You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=3f6b9a1f527f488a6ef6a56033aac86f
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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2190414 29.08.2025 CET/CEST

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