Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG

18.08.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA

     Company Name:                Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
     ISIN:                        DE0005493092

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     from:                        18.08.2025
     Target price:                EUR 5.20
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Philipp Sennewald

FY24/25 ahead on sales but behind on the bottom-line / Chg.

On Friday, BVB released preliminary FY24/25 figures, showing further
top-line growth against a strong comparable base as well as FCF
improvements, while profitability came in slightly weaker than expected. In
detail:

FY24/25p sales increased 3.3% yoy to EUR 526m (eNuW: EUR 517m; eCons: EUR 511m),
which was especially driven by TV Marketing sales of EUR 227m (+10.3% yoy;
eNuW: EUR 215m) which benefitted from the FIFA CWC that was held in June/July
(c. 75% of corresponding sales attributable to FY24/25). Besides this, sales
were largely in line with match operations sales up 5.0% to EUR 55.2m,
Advertising up 4.8% to EUR 154m, Merchandising down 16.4% to EUR 40.0m and
Conference, catering & others down 10.7% to EUR 50m. The reason for the
decline in Merchandising and CC&O lies mainly in the tough comparable base
given the UEFA Euros in summer 2024 and BVB reaching the UCL final last
year.

FY24/25p EBITDA declined by 22.9% yoy to EUR 116m (eNuW: EUR 121m; eCons: EUR
118m), implying a 22.0% margin (FY23/24: 29.5%). While the CWC should have
made up for not reaching the UCL final again, the main factor for the
decline lies in the transfer result, which was pushed the year before by the
EUR 103m of Jude Bellingham to Real Madrid. Overall, net transfer income
declined 61.3% to EUR 37.8m as a result.

On the contrary, FY24/25p FCF improved significantly to EUR 21.5 (eNuW: EUR
20.9m), up from EUR -4.4m the year before. FCF generation was predominantly
driven by positive WC swings, as oustanding receivables in connection with
player transfers were collected as well as normalizing CapEx (investments in
new catering facilities and training ground for women team last year).

What to expect for FY25/26: Let's start with the sporting perspective, which
is laying the foundation for the financial success of a football club. As in
the previous seasons, we expect BVB to finish the Bundesliga inside the
Top-4, thus securing qualification for the 2026/27 UCL season, reach the
round of 16 in the UCL as well as the quarterfinals in the national cup. On
this basis, sales are seen to decline by 3.3% to EUR 509m given that the
majority of CWC prize money was recorded in FY24/25 as well as the fact,
that BVB did reach the UCL quarterfinal last season. Despite that we expect
an EBITDA improvement by 17% to EUR 136m (26.7% margin) on the back of
recovering net transfer income, as the already sealed transfer of Jamie
Gittens to Chelsea alone had a bottom-line effect of EUR 37-42m, according to
the company. Two further player transfers for a total gross value of EUR 13m
as well as the expectation of additional transfers lead us to our estimate
of EUR 60m net transfer income in FY25/26e. The company is expected to publish
a guidance for FY25/26 with the release of the annual report on 26th
September.

On this basis as well as the continuous undemanding valuation of 3.1x
EV/EBITDA FY25/26e, we confirm our BUY recommendation an maintain our EUR 5.20
PT based on DCF.



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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
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Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2184858 18.08.2025 CET/CEST

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