Original-Research: wallstreet:online AG (von GBC AG): BUY

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Original-Research: wallstreet:online AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu wallstreet:online AG

Unternehmen: wallstreet:online AG
ISIN: DE000A2GS609

Anlass der Studie: Research Note
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 38.60 EUR
Letzte Ratingänderung: 
Analyst: Marcel Goldmann, Cosmin Filker

FY 2021 closed with jump in revenues and significant expansion of fintech
business; planned optimisation of brokerage business model with the help of
own smartbroker cloud platform should significantly increase growth rate
and earnings power; forecast and price target raised; rating Buy
 
Business development in the past financial year 2021
 
On 07/03/2022, wallstreet:online AG (wallstreet:online) announced its
preliminary business figures for the 2021 financial year. According to
these, the group continued its dynamic growth course in the past financial
year and recorded another record year. Compared to the previous year,
revenues jumped by 82.0% to EUR 51.4 million (previous year: EUR 28.2
million).
 
At the earnings level, EBITDA adjusted for customer acquisition costs of
EUR 13.1 million for Smartbroker increased by 45.0% to EUR 17.5 million
(previous year: EUR 12.0 million). Due to considerable investments in the
development and expansion of the brokerage business (Smartbroker brand),
which, in addition to development costs incurred, primarily affected the
marketing and personnel areas, the EBITDA after customer acquisition costs
fell significantly to EUR 3.9 million (previous year: EUR 7.5 million)
compared to the previous year.
 
The company thus met both its turnover and earnings guidance. Our turnover
forecast (EUR 49.10 million) was slightly exceeded and our earnings
estimate (EBITDA: EUR 5.70 million) was not reached due to higher costs for
the expansion and development of the brokerage business.
 
The dynamic increase in group turnover resulted primarily from the
significantly higher business volume in the transaction business area. In
this business field, segment revenues were massively increased to EUR 15.93
million compared to the previous year (previous year: segment revenue GBCe:
EUR 1.20 million). This jump in turnover reflects the successful
investments in the expansion of the smart broker client base.
 
The company was able to more than double the number of securities accounts
opened and the assets under management in the brokerage business segment in
the past financial year. According to the company, a total of around
246,000 securities accounts were managed as at 31 December 2021, of which
around 200,000 were attributable to the smart broker. The neobroker of the
wallstreet:online group thus grew by 120,000 securities accounts compared
to the previous year, which corresponds to an increase of 140.0%.
 
Parallel to this, the assets under custody grew significantly by 105% to
EUR 8.8 billion (previous year: EUR 4.3 billion). This results in an
average custody account volume of approximately EUR 36,000, whereby this
figure is significantly higher than the values of well-known competitors.
Accordingly, the company has a particularly valuable client base compared
to its competitors. In terms of client assets under management, the
wallstreet:online group has, thus, according to its own statements, risen
to become the largest neobroker operator in Germany within a very short
time.
 
In addition, segment revenues in their traditional business (media/portal
business) also increased significantly by 32.0% to EUR 35.47 million
(previous year: EUR 26.87 million) compared to the previous year. In our
opinion, increased user numbers and advertising revenues contributed to
this positive development. Page impressions in the portal business as of 31
December 2021 rose significantly by 16.0% to 3.90 billion (31 December
2020: 3.40 billion) compared to the previous year's reporting date.
 
Outlook of the wallstreet:online group for the financial year 2022
 
In view of the dynamic course of business and the record financial year
achieved, the company's management expects the growth course to continue in
the current financial year 2022. For the current financial year 2022, the
company expects sales revenues in a range of EUR 62.0 million to EUR 67.0
million and thus a sales increase of around 25.0%. At the earnings level,
an adjusted EBITDA (operational EBITDA) after customer acquisition costs in
a range of EUR 10.0 million to EUR 12.0 million should be achieved.
 
With regard to customer acquisition, the company expects marketing costs of
EUR 6.0 million for the current financial period and thus an adjusted
EBITDA before customer acquisition costs of EUR 16.0 million to EUR 18.0
million. The significant decrease in customer acquisition costs compared to
the previous year is the result of a strategic decision to concentrate all
efforts on the planned introduction and implementation (probably in the
second half of 2022) of the company's own 'Smartbroker Cloud Platform'.
Following the market launch of the new 'Smartbroker 2.0', however, the
acquisition of new customers is to be stepped up significantly again, with
the company expecting 55,000 new custody account customers in the current
financial year. In January and February of this year, more than 13,000 new
securities accounts were already opened, which already corresponds to 24.0%
of the annual plan.
 
With the introduction of its own Smartbroker Cloud platform, the company
expects a significant improvement in its existing brokerage business model
and anticipates positive effects both in terms of revenue and earnings. For
example, wallstreet:online assumes that new target groups can be addressed
through the implementation of its own IT infrastructure and that customer
acquisition costs can be reduced in parallel. In addition, the new IT
platform should cover all digital channels and thus significantly increase
the number of transactions per custody account and at the same time reduce
the costs per transaction execution on the part of the company. The overall
increase in the degree of internationalisation should lead to additional
cash flows and economies of scale in costs.
 
GBC assessment and evaluation
 
Based on the company's positive outlook and the currently very convincing
corporate performance, we are raising our previous revenue estimates for
the financial years 2022 and 2023. We now expect revenues of EUR 62.33
million for the current financial year (previously: EUR 61.35 million) and
revenues of EUR 84.02 million in the following year 2023 (previously: EUR
72.55 million). In the following financial year 2024, sales revenues should
increase further to EUR 98.57 million.
 
In view of the fact that we expect higher expansion and development costs
for the brokerage business (Smartbroker) in the future than was previously
the case, we have adjusted our previous earnings forecasts for the
financial years 2022 and 2023 downwards. For the 2022 and 2023 financial
periods, we now expect EBITDA of EUR 10.04 million (previously: EUR 20.02
million) and EUR 14.05 million (previously: EUR 28.15 million),
respectively. In the following financial year 2024, we expect EBITDA to
increase to EUR 28.73 million.
 
Overall, we believe that the wallstreet:online group is well positioned in
both business segments (Media, Brokerage) to continue to grow very
dynamically in the future and to further increase profitability. The
planned introduction of our own brokerage platform (Smartbroker 2.0) should
significantly improve the current business model in the transaction
business and thereby enable significantly stronger growth and a
disproportionate increase in earnings through expected economies of scale.
In addition, we expect that the increased combination of the synergetic
media and brokerage business activities will additionally boost the
profitable growth course of the wallstreet:online group.
 
Based on our new estimates, we have determined a new price target of EUR
38.60 per share within the framework of our DCF valuation model and thus
slightly raised our previous price target (previously: EUR 37.70). Our
price target increase results primarily from the first-time inclusion of
the 2024 financial year in the concrete estimation period and the
associated higher starting level for the continuity phase of the valuation
model. In view of the current share price level, we continue to assign a
Buy rating and see significant upside potential.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/23695.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,5b,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:

http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Datum und Zeitpunkt der Fertigstellung der Studie: 30.03.2022 (10:27 Uhr)   
Datum und Zeitpunkt der ersten Weitergabe: 30.03.2022 (11:00 Uhr)
Gültigkeit des Kursziels: bis max. 31.12.2022

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