Original-Research: Rubean AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Rubean AG - from NuWays AG

Classification of NuWays AG to Rubean AG

Company Name: Rubean AG
ISIN: DE0005120802

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 12.03.2024
Target price: 9.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change: 
Analyst: Frederik Jarchow

Conservative FY24 guidance, but ambitious mid-term vision
Topic: Yesterday, Rubean announced a rather conservative topline guidance
for FY24 as well as an ambitious mid-term vision with regards to sales,
EBIT and app user. In detail:
Sales to more than double in FY24. Rubean is expecting to grow its sales by
135% at mid-point to EUR 2.2-2.5m in FY24. On the back of the recently
announced cooperations paired further likely customer wins, we consider
this guidance as rather conservative, still anticipating EUR 3.0m sales
(eNuW). As it is difficult to precisely forecast the exponential growth
trajectory, management seems to play it safe.
40+% EBIT margin by FY27. For FY27, Rubean is aiming for EUR 10+m in sales,
implying a 78% CAGR 2023-27e, which is even above our estimates of EUR 9.0m.
As we see Rubean at the forefront of the rapidly growing market for mobile
payment acceptance systems that is just at the beginning, the vision looks
reasonable. Thanks to scale effects of the highly scalable business model,
management is guiding for 40+% EBIT margin in FY27, which is in line with
our estimates (eNuW: 41%).
1m app user until 2025. Further, management is expecting 1m app user until
2025 after having reported 25k in FY23. While we think that this figure is
a bit too ambitious (eNuW: 350k, only reflecting the user potential of
existing contracts), it is not completely out of reach, as a single major
contract could completely change the picture.
Following the recent series of important strategic partnerships within a
short period of time (i.e. Global Payments, Correos, emerchantpay), Rubean
is showing once again very clearly that its leading softPOS product is
ready and that the roll-out is in full swing. Furthermore, many of the
initial pilot projects of earlier won customers went into regular
operations, generating revenues. Among these customers are national postal
services such as GLS in Spain, DPD, Express One or Dodo in Eastern Europe
but also large banks such as BBVA in Spain and Global Payments Europe. In
our view, more positive newsflow from further new partnerships within FY24
that should further ramp-up sales and EBIT going forward, is likely,
helping to beat the guidance.
BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 9.00, based on our DCF.

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