Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG - from NuWays AG

07.05.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to MHP Hotel AG

     Company Name:                MHP Hotel AG
     ISIN:                        DE000A3E5C24

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     from:                        07.05.2025
     Target price:                EUR 3.00
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Philipp Sennewald

Strong beat on the bottom-line; chg.

Topic: Yesterday, MHP released an ad-hoc stating that FY24 EBITDA is
expected significantly stronger than previously anticipated. Moreover,
management hinted for continuous portfolio expansion. In detail:

For FY24, management now expects an EBITDA in the range of EUR 10.0-10.5m.
This represents a 14% beat at mid-point compared to the old guidance of
around EUR 9m, which the company put out in December. Given the implied FY24e
sales (derived from quarterly hotel performance updates) of EUR 160m, this
implies a margin of 6.3%, marking a steep 5.5pp yoy improvement.

In our view, this is a strong confirmation of the operating strength of
MHP's business model, which is seen to thrive further on the back of strong
ADR's and solid occupancy rates. It also shows, that the company's clear
focus on the premium- and luxury-segment is paying off, as we observe a
continuous outperformance compared to midscale and economy hotels.

Against this backdrop, management also confirmed the FY25 guidance of EUR 180m
sales (eNuW: EUR 185m) and EUR 15m EBITDA (eNuW: EUR 15.0m/ EUR 10m adj. EBITDA
excl. key-money payments), implying a 13% yoy top-line increase and an 8.3%
EBITDA margin.

Strategic expansion. In a corporate news following the ad-hoc, management
stated that it is currently reviewing the increase of existing financing
capabilities for further growth investments given the appealing
opportunities provided by the ongoing consolidation of the European and
especially DACH hotel market. In our view, expanding the portfolio during
the current window of opportunity is absolutely sensible. Especially the
numerous prominent insolvencies that we observed recently should put market
leading players like MHP in a strong position to take over and reposition
hotels in central locations of the company's key markets. Mind you, that we
do not include any portfolio expansion in our model. Hence, every hotel
added is providing upside to our estimates.

On this basis as well as given the currently undemanding valuation (5.3x
EV/adj. EBITDA FY25e), we reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 3.00 based
on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32488.pdf
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2131584 07.05.2025 CET/CEST

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